May20,08地震能否預測？Can earthquake forecast +馬太福音Matthew26:9-16

馬太福音

26:9	這香膏可以賣許多錢，賙濟窮人。”
26:10	耶穌看出他們的意思，就說：“為甚麼難為這女人呢？她在我身上做的是一件美事。
26:11	因為常有窮人和你們同在，只是你們不常有我。
26:12	她將這香膏澆在我身上，是為我安葬做的。
26:13	我實在告訴你們：普天之下，無論在甚麼地方傳這福音，也要述說這女人所行的，作個記念。”
26:14	當下，十二門徒裡有一個稱為加略人猶大的，去見祭司長，說：
26:15	“我把他交給你們，你們願意給我多少錢？”他們就給了他三十塊錢。
26:16	從那時候，他就找機會要把耶穌交給他們。

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同一件事，不同的次序安排，福音書的作者有何用意？
26:6-13　馬太福音和馬可福音把這件事放在最後晚餐前，而約翰福音則將之放在耶穌進入耶路撒冷之前，三者之中，約翰福音的記載最有可能是按時間次序的。我們要知道福音書的作者寫書的主要目的是準確地記錄耶穌的信息，而不是按時間先後記錄耶穌的生平。馬太和馬可選擇把這件事放在猶大賣主的記載之前，好使完全委身基督的馬利亞與背叛出賣耶穌的猶大成為強烈的對比。

門徒說的也不錯，耶穌何出此言？莫非……
26:11　耶穌指出：“因為常有窮人和你們同在”（參申15:11），並不是忽略窮人的需要，聖經不斷呼籲我們要關心有需要的人。然而，耶穌這樣說是要突出馬利亞對祂的特別奉獻。

猶大為何出賣耶穌？我會像他一樣忘記了祂的恩典嗎？
26:14-15　為甚麼猶大出賣耶穌？聖經沒詳細交代，可能是他也像其他門徒一樣，希望耶穌發動一次革命，推翻羅馬政權；而他負責掌管錢財，也期望將來在耶穌的新政府裡佔有重要的地位，就像雅各、約翰的想法一樣（參可10:35-37）。但看到耶穌稱讚馬利亞獻上價值相當於一年工資的香膏，他可能意識到耶穌的國度並不是眼見的或是政治性的，乃是屬靈的，如果跟隨耶穌，就不能實現對金錢和地位的慾望，因此以出賣耶穌，換取金錢和那些宗教領袖的喜悅。

未曾過節身已死，這死大有別意義，你可知道？
26:15　只有馬太福音記載猶大出賣耶穌換取銀錢的確實數目——三十塊錢，這是一個奴隸的價錢（參出21:32）。本來宗教領袖打算在逾越節過後才捉拿耶穌，但由於有猶大獻計，故提前實現他們的陰謀。神要應驗舊約的預言：耶穌成為逾越節的羔羊，代死以除去世人的罪孽（參約1:29）。
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Matthew

26:9		For this ointment might have been sold for much, and given to the poor.
26:10		When Jesus understood it, he said unto them, Why trouble ye the woman? for she hath wrought a good work upon me.
26:11		For ye have the poor always with you; but me ye have not always.
26:12		For in that she hath poured this ointment on my body, she did it for my burial.
26:13		Verily I say unto you, Wheresoever this gospel shall be preached in the whole world, there shall also this, that this woman hath done, be told for a memorial of her.
26:14		Then one of the twelve, called Judas Iscariot, went unto the chief priests,
26:15		And said unto them, What will ye give me, and I will deliver him unto you? And they covenanted with him for thirty pieces of silver.
26:16		And from that time he sought opportunity to betray him.

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The same thing, different order of arrangement, the author of the Gospel of the intention »
Matthew 26:6-13 and Mark on this matter before the Last Supper, and John will be in place before Jesus entered Jerusalem, the three, John recorded the most likely By the time the order. We must realize that the Gospel authors to write the main purpose is to accurately record the information of Jesus, rather than record time of Jesus's life. Matthew and Ma can choose this matter on the record before the seller Judah, so that the full commitment of Christ and Mary betrayal of Judas betrayed Jesus to become a strong contrast.

It is true also that the disciples, Jesus Ho Chu Ciyan » Are……
26:11 Jesus said: "Because you often poor and the same" (Senate Shanghai 15:11), is not neglected the needs of the poor, the Bible calls upon us to care about people in need. However, Jesus said to Mary highlighted the special devotion to him.

Why Judas betrayed Jesus » I would like to forget, as he has the grace of him? »
26:14-15 why Judas betrayed Jesus » No detailed account of the Bible, he may be the same as the other disciples that Jesus launched a revolution and the overthrow of Rome regime, and he in charge of money, but also hope that the new government in Jesus, occupy an important position, like Jacob, John Like the idea of (the Senate could 10:35-37). But to see Jesus commended Mary present value equivalent to one year wage Xianggao, he may realize that Jesus is not seeing the country or political in nature, is the spiritual, if follow Jesus, the money can not be achieved And the status of desire, to betray Jesus in exchange for money and the joy of those religious leaders.

The holidays are not dead, the death of other great significance, you know »
Only Matthew 26:15 records of Judas betrayed Jesus in exchange for money the exact number - 30 of money, this is the price of a slave (the Senate to 21:32). Originally religious leaders intend to capture only after the Passover Jesus, but because of Judas offer, the early realization of their conspiracy. God fulfilled the Old Testament prophecy: Jesus became the Passover lamb, and death to remove the world's sins (the Senate about 1:29).

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地震能否預測？

一、前言

自 古以來人類對於地震就有莫大的關懷。因為地震會在一瞬間把一個繁華的大都巿破壞殆盡，變成廢墟，一次造成幾萬人死傷者並不罕見。能不能預先推測地震的發 生，也一直成為大家心目中所關心的問題。住在經常有地震發生的臺灣，對於何時將有地震自然更要關切。古今中外研究這個題目的科學家以及所謂民間專家，多得 不勝枚舉。
最近廿多年來美、日、俄等科學先進國家，對此曾不斷研究已有相當成就。本文綜合報導研究結果，特別就地震預測問題及最近發展的狀況提供若干簡要的介紹。

二、地震規模和震度

為 了方便本文的討論，先要簡單介紹地震大小的概念。地震的大小有兩種涵義：一為地震本身的大小，例如我們說「今天伊朗發生大地震」，雖然我們實際上並沒有感 覺到這次地震，但從受到災害的程度或地震儀記錄可以推知它的大小；此所謂「地震」，表示整個地震現象，包括地震本身的大小在內。另外一種稱為「地震動」， 簡稱「地動」的大小，為了區別起見，我們姑且稱它為「地動的強弱」，譬如我們說「昨天晚上的地震搖得很厲害，所以被它搖醒了」；此所稱地震，即屬「地 動」。地動的強弱通常用「震度階級」簡稱「震度」來表示。關於震度，有各種不同的定義，在臺灣目前採用1至6級如第一表。其他尚有許多方法，例如 Mercalli, Cancani, Rossi-Forel, Modified Mercalli, MSK, JMA等。震度也可以用物理上加速度（單位為gal）表示。
地震本身的大小稱為「地震規模」（Earthquake magnitude）可用人體感覺的範圍（如面積或有感距離半徑等），離震央某一距離的震度或地動最大振幅表示，並可用物理上的能量（單位為erg）表 示。地震規模比較常用者為1935年Richter氏所訂定，即在震央距離100公里處的標準扭轉地震儀（因有週期0.8秒，阻尼常數0.8，最大倍率 2,800倍）所測記象最大振幅A（單位為μ）的常用對數為地震規模M：

M＝logA　　　　(1)

前面說過震度由正整數表示，但地震規模則兼用正負數表示，通常記至小數一位。地震規模和地震大小的關係，請參考第二表及第三表。
地震規模M和震度有下列關係：

M=4.85-0.5I100　　　 (2)

上式中I100表示距離震央100公里處的震度。由此式我們知道以震源深度及震央距離相同的地點而論，震度隨地震規模而增加。

三、什麼叫做地震預測

假 定有人說，他能預測地震，並且說：「明天花蓮將會發生地震」。這種預測沒有明白表示地震規模及可能發生的震度，顯然毫無意義。大家都知道，花蓮地方人體感 覺不到的地震（叫做無感地震）經常在發生。可見這預測是很容易猜中的。縱然有人預測說：「明天臺灣地區會發生有感地震」，據筆者統計，臺灣地區每年發生有 感地震有二百多次，故猜中率也一定很高，且指定區域比一個縣巿還大，所以也沒有多大意義。
由此可見我們不預測則已，要做地震預測，必須明確指出， 地震規模、震度、地震發生地點以及地震發生時間才有意義。通常地震預測所指的地震規模常在6以上，且會造成災害的地震，震央位置至少要在50公里×50公 里見方範圍內，發生時期長期者數個月至數年，短期者數小時乃至數天的程度。
這種預測可以說是國家百年大計。從保障國民的生命財產來看，是一個非常迫切的問題，也是地震學者多年來最高的願望。目前雖然關於地震發生的機構尚不能說完全了解，但有關方面的研究，近年來確有長足的進展。希望不久將來能實現上述所說程度的預測。

四、各國研究現況

國土狹小且常受震災的日本，對地震預測最感興趣也盡過最大的努力。1962年，地震研究學者約90人曾組成地震預知研究小組，製作研究計劃的藍圖，內容包含下列項目：
(1)應用大地測量結果，調查地殼變動；

(2)整頓各驗潮站，俾能檢出地殼變動；

(3)辦理地殼變動連續觀測；

(4)調查地震活動；

(5)應用人造地震，觀測地震波速度；

(6)調查地磁及地電流；

(7)調查活的斷層和褶曲；

(8)辦理岩石破壞實驗，測定地殼熱流量；

(9)設置地震預知觀測中心。

依照此計劃網羅東京、京都、名古屋、東北及北海道等各大學以及氣象廳，國土地理院等機構專家於1965年成立，開始實際工作；以十年為期，以能達到預測為目標。
在 美國自從1964年阿拉斯加大地震發生後，對於地震預測的關心和興趣逐漸提高，現在阿拉斯加大學、加州理工大學、哥倫比亞大學以及地震情報中心等機構也在 做地震預測的研究，且曾和日本聯合舉行地震預測會議，於1964年在東京召開。嗣後每隔兩年舉辦一次，討論有關地震預測的問題。
俄國在中央亞細亞及堪察加半島等地區也在做地震預測的研究。最近報載，俄國預測1973年至1975年間庫頁島至臺灣間可能發生大海嘯的消息。因預測海嘯必須能預測大地震（地震規模7以上）才能辦到，可見蘇俄此項研究可能已獲某種成就。
國 際連繫方面，1967年在瑞士蘇黎支所召開的國際大地測量及地球物理協會（IUGG）總會中成立地震預測工作小組，共有委員十三人，計日本3人，俄國3 人，美國2人，英國、智利、土耳其、紐西蘭、南斯拉夫等國各1人。建議在土耳其Anatolia高原，在國際協辦下從事地震預測的研究，1971年 IUGG總會決議，加強地震預測的研究，且把工作小組改為常設委員會。

五、地震預測的方法

前面說過，地震發生的機構到現在為止，還沒有澈底了解，可見循那一種途徑預測最為有效，各人有各人的說法，但似乎祗有依賴過去幾十年觀測的經驗較為可靠。下面簡單介紹現在大家認為最有效的各種方法如下：
(1)大地測量的方法

根據過去許多紀錄，大地震發生時，隨著會發生地殼變動，而有時會發生在地震之前。因此測量地震前後震央區域，即可知有無發生地殼變動。如果測量工作經常實施，可能發見地震發生以前的種種變動。
例如日本1964年的新瀉地震發生的地區，恰好是因調查地盤下沉而經常反覆在做測量工作，故發現地震以前，確有前兆現象可尋。
異常地殼變動發生後至地震發生的時間T（單位為年）和地震規模M間具有下列近似的經驗法則：

logT＝0.75M-4.27　　(3)

即地震規模愈大，其準備時間愈長。由於計算此公式所據資料尚不夠充分，故僅能表示大概的傾向，俟將來資料充實後再修正此公式。
此外，我們也知道伴隨地震發生地殼變動的面積亦隨著地震規模而增加。假設發生地殼變動的範圍為半徑r（單位為cm）的圓形，M與r間有下列近似經驗公式：

logr3=8.18+15.3M　　(4)

這種關係就地震發生以前慢慢引起的異常地殼變動來說，可能也會成立。所以異常地殼變動發生的範圍可以說是預測地震規模最有力的途徑之一。
最 近利用光波測距儀（geodimeter）也可以很準確的觀測相距約二、三十公里的兩點間距離，由於此種儀器可測地殼的相對運動。日本松代群生地震發生時 觀測結果表示，離開3公里的兩點，於13個月間伸長120公分。美國沿聖安杜禮阿斯斷層地帶，地震活動非常活躍，也用同樣方法在做地殼變動觀測。

(2)驗潮

過去大地震發生前後，住在海岸地帶的人，往往會看到海岸線或島嶼的急激上昇或下降現象。因此整頓驗潮站網及加強設備，經常監視驗潮紀錄，很可能找出地震發生的前兆現象。

(3)地殼變動連續觀測

隔幾年做一次大地測量檢出地殼變動的方法相當有效，但不能獲得連續的資料。要補充這一缺點，採用高靈敏度傾斜計及伸縮計，來做地殼變動的連續紀錄。這種儀器較大者佔地縱橫各幾十公尺，為避免溫度變化及雜動，多設在山洞內。
日本松代群生地震發生時，設在松代地震觀閱所的水管傾斜計所得紀錄顯示與地震活動消長有相當密切的對應，有時也有前驅異常傾斜出現。這種方法也算是預測地震的有力線索。

(4)地震活動

某 地區的地震活動即地震規模多大的地震發生的頻率資料，是研究地震預測最基本的憑藉。分析地震規模M大於3的地震，加強現有中央氣象局的地震觀測網，就可以 調查它的活動狀況。M等於1至3的微地震，必須增加設有高倍率（1萬至10萬倍以上）地震儀的微地震觀測站才能測到。M小於1的極微地震必須依靠超高倍率 （100萬倍左右）地震儀才能測到。
現在一般相信地震發生次數N和規模M之間有下列關係：

logN＝a-bM　 (5)

a及b均為常數。a依觀測年數和所考慮的地區面積大小而定，等於M為零的地震次數的對數，但b和觀測年數及考慮的面積大小無關，而表示此直線的梯度，即M小的地震對M大的地震次數的比率。即表示某一地區地震活動特性的常數和該地區的地體構造有關。
據筆者研究，計算a及b值需400次以上的地震才算可靠。如使用大地震來求a及b值，要用好幾十年的資料，但使用微地震，也許只需1至2週時間就可以辦到。
自從電磁式高倍率地震儀開始觀測以後，微地震的紀錄急速在增多中。關於微地震和大地震之關係現有兩種相反的看法。即：
(A) 微地震常常發生的地方會引起大地震，日本松代地震就是一個例子。(B)微地震不常發生的地震帶中，也可能發生大地震，例如美國聖安杜禮阿斯斷層地帶的地 震。這兩種見解似乎彼此矛盾，原因在於針對性質不同的地殼所致。第一種想法，在地殼比較不均勻的地區如破碎帶就會成立；而第二種想法對於比較強度大而均勻 的地殼板會成立。由此預測地震必須先了解該地區地震活動及其地體的構造。

(5)地震波速度

地殼如果受到強大應力時，經過此區的地震波速度可能會發生變化。根據在中亞細亞觀測的報告，縱波速度在地震發生前後有15%的變化。這個數字相當驚人，必須應用人造地震反覆實驗才能證明地震波速度的變化和地震發生的關係。

(6)地磁及地電流

自從Proton磁力計發明後，地磁的觀測資料增加很多，而準確度也隨之提高，但問題的要點在於怎樣區別因地震發生的變動和自然發生的地磁雜音。
地電流的直接觀測很不容易，通常是觀測兩點間的電位差。地電流當然和地磁有密切的關係，因此和地震發生也有關係。目前還不十分了解，尚有繼續研究的必要。

(7)活斷層及活褶曲

由 美國加州及土耳其Anatolia高原的大地震可明確表示斷層運動和地震發生有密切關係。尤其在聖安杜禮阿斯斷層地帶，地震活動非常活躍，經常有剪斷匍匐 運\動。利用光波測距儀在舊金山南方150哩的小鎮何利斯塔測定的結果，顯示它的速度為每年4公分。這種活斷層或較大規模的褶曲運動都和地震發生有密切關 係。

(8)岩石破壞實驗和地殼熱流量的測定

近年來地殼熱流量的觀測和研究有長足進步，研究結果發現它和地震現象有密切的關係。彙集這種資料判斷預測也是很重要途徑之一，在實驗室裏把岩石標本加重使它破壞，可獲得類似前震和本震的關係可供地震預測理論的根據。

(9)其他方法

用人工擾亂地殼觀察它的反應，也可作地震預測的參考。例如在美國Denver地區，把工廠廢液注入地下2至3公里深時，曾發生地震。而地震次數隨著注入量而增加。這種關係判明後，將來也許可以提早釋放貯存在地殼內的能量以免貯存量逐漸增加而引起大規模的地震。
此外，根據過去幾百年甚至幾千年以上的地震記錄，用統計方法也可以做地震的預測，但這種方法缺少物理根據。

六、結語

從 以上所說可知地震預測，現有許多途徑可循，而各國正致力研究中，但在地震預測理論還沒有完成前，各種觀測資料必須累積增多，才能提早完成。不過地震現象在 本質上畢竟和日蝕或月蝕不同，預測準確的發生時間似不可能。我們知道地震是一種破壞現象，這種破壞程度的預測，原理上是不可能的。我們將來所能預測的項 目，僅能限於破壞可能發生的地域，破壞的大小及破壞發生的機率等。因此預測的內容大致屬於某地區規模6左右的地震發生的機率很大或者隨時可能發生的狀態， 且在某地區的最大震度是5級。這種警報預計可分兩種：例如長期者可望在半年前或一年前發佈，短期者則在數天前或幾小時前發佈。
地震預測命中率不可能達到100%，但至少要有80%才值得發佈，正如現在的天氣預報準確率才有價值。不準確的預測，只有造成混淆社會視聽，沒有利益可言，故公佈時須注意之。
我 國地震科學之研究剛進入開始的階段，不能侈談預測問題。目前中央氣象局有七十餘年的觀測紀錄，國家科學委員會正在籌備微地震觀測網，從事研究工作人員應了 解各國研究的狀況，朝向正確方向走去，俾將來我國也能推動地震預測的研究，藉以減輕因地震引起的不必要損害，造福人群，國家社會之幸也。

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I. Introduction

Since ancient times human beings have the great earthquake of care. Because of the earthquake in a moment of the most prosperous market has been completely ruined, turned into ruins, one of tens of thousands of dead victims are not uncommon. Can not speculate in advance of the earthquake occurred, has become the eyes of all issues of concern. Living in the quake occurred frequently in Taiwan, when there will be more natural to be concerned about the earthquake. Research on the subject of ancient and modern scientists, and the so-called non-governmental experts, the list goes on and more.
The last 20 years the United States, Japan, Russia and other scientifically advanced countries, which have had considerable success continue to study. This paper reports the research findings, particularly on the issue of earthquake prediction and the recent development of the situation, provide some brief introduction.

Second, the scale of the earthquake and tsunami

To facilitate this discussion, first a brief introduction of the concept of earthquake size. The size of the earthquake there are two meanings: one for the size of the earthquake itself, for example, we said that "today the earthquake in Iran", although we actually did not feel the quake, but by the disaster or the extent of seismograph records can be pushed to know it The size of this so-called "earthquake", said the seismic phenomena, including earthquakes, the size of their own. Also known as a "shocked", referred to as "the earth will quake," the size, for the sake of distinction, Let us call it "the earth will quake's strength", for example, we said "Last night's powerful earthquake will shake it, so it was a Yaoxing "This earthquake claimed, it is an" earth will quake. " Usually the strength of the earth will quake with "shock of class" referred to as "tsunami" to that. On the earthquake, there are various different definitions currently used in Taiwan 1-6 as the first table. There are many other ways, such as the Mercalli, Cancani, Rossi-Forel, Modified Mercalli, MSK, JMA, and so on. Earthquakes can also use physical acceleration (in gal) said.
The size of the earthquake itself as "the scale of the earthquake" (Earthquake magnitude) can feel the scope of the human body (such as size or distance felt radius), a certain distance from the epicenter of the earthquake or the maximum amplitude that the earth will quake and available on the physical energy ( Units for the erg) said. Seismic scale of those commonly used for the 1935 Richter's set, that is 100 kilometers from the epicenter of the earthquake-standard reverse (because of a cycle of 0.8 seconds, 0.8 damping constant, the largest ratio of 28 times) in mind, as measured by the maximum amplitude A ( Units for μ) of the few commonly used for seismic scale M:

M = logA (1)

Zhen said in front of the positive integers, but the use of seismic scale of plus or minus a few that are usually credited to a minority. Seismic scale and the relationship between the size of the earthquake, please refer to table the second and third table.
M-scale earthquake and tsunami following:

M = 4.85-0.5I100 (2)

I100-in on that 100 km from the epicenter of the earthquake. We know that this type to the source and depth of the epicenter from the same location 1996, with the seismic shock of the scale of increase.

Third, what is earthquake prediction

It was assumed that he can predict earthquakes, and said: "Tomorrow will be an earthquake in Hualien." This forecast does not understand that the scale of the earthquake and tsunami might happen, obviously meaningless. As we all know, feeling less than human Hualien where the earthquake (called no sense earthquakes) often occurred. This shows that this forecast is very easy guessed. Although some people predicted that: "Taiwan will happen tomorrow felt tremors", according to the author to statistics, Taiwan has felt tremors in each of the 200 many times, it is also certain to guess high, and a designated area than the county also members of the So also does not mean much.
This shows that we do not have been forecasting, earthquake prediction to be done, it must be clear that the scale of the earthquake, tsunami, the earthquake occurred and the time the earthquake would be meaningful. Earthquake prediction is usually referred to the size of the earthquake in 6 more often, and can result in the earthquake disaster, at least in the location of the epicenter 50 km × 50公里square, within a period of long-term, a few months to several years, and even a few hours to several short-term The extent of days.
Such forecasts can be said that countries Bainiantaiji. To protect the lives and property of citizens, is a very pressing issue, the earthquake is also the highest aspirations of scholars over the years. Although the earthquake occurred on the body still can not fully understand that, but the relevant research in recent years it has made significant progress. Hope that the near future to achieve the above mentioned extent of the forecast.

Fourth, countries on the status of

Homeland narrow and often by the earthquake in Japan, the most interested in earthquake prediction has been made the greatest efforts. 1962, earthquake research scholars composed of about 90 people had anticipated earthquake research group, produced a blueprint for research projects, which include the following items:
(1) the results of geodetic survey crustal movements;

(2) rectification of the tide gauge stations, to enable the detection of crustal movements;

(3) changes in the crust for continuous observation;

(4) to investigate seismic activity;

(5) of man-made earthquake, seismic velocity observations;

(6) geomagnetic survey and the current;

(7) to investigate the fault and the fold of living;

(8) for destruction of experimental rock, the heat flow in the crust;

(9) set predict earthquake observation centre.

In accordance with this plan involves Tokyo, Kyoto, Nagoya, and the northeast of Hokkaido, and other universities and the Meteorological Agency, the Geographical Survey Institute, and other expert bodies set up in 1965, began the actual work for a period of 10 years to, so as to achieve the forecast target.
In the United States since the 1964 earthquake in Alaska, earthquake prediction for the concern and interest in improving gradually, University of Alaska, California Polytechnic University, Columbia University and the earthquake information center, and other agencies are doing earthquake prediction research, and Japan and have joint Earthquake Prediction held meetings in 1964 held in Tokyo. Subsequently held once every two years to discuss issues related to earthquake prediction.
Russia in Central Asia and the Kamchatka Peninsula and other regions are doing earthquake prediction research. Recent newspaper reports, Russia Forecast for 1973-1975 of Sakhalin to Taiwan may occur between the tsunami news. Forecast due to the tsunami must be able to forecast the earthquake (seismic scale of 7 or more) in order to do so, the Soviet Union that the study may have been some successes.
International links, in 1967 Ruishisuli branch meeting of the International Association of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) in the establishment of the Federation of earthquake prediction working group, a total of 13 members, including Japan 3, Russia 3, United States 2, Britain, Chile, Turkey, New Zealand, Yugoslavia and other countries one each. Turkey, Anatolia Plateau in the proposal, under the assistance of the international research in earthquake prediction, 1971 IUGG Association resolution to strengthen the earthquake prediction research, and the working group into a Standing Committee.

5, earthquake prediction method

Said earlier, the agency earthquake occurred up to now, no Chedi know, that forecast a way through the most effective, everyone has his or her argument, but it seems only rely on observation over the past several decades of experience more reliable. Below is a brief introduction we think the most effective ways are as follows:
(1) geodetic methods

Many records in the past, when the earthquake occurred, as would happen crustal movements, and sometimes occur before the earthquake. Therefore earthquake measuring around the epicenter region, to know whether changes in the crust. If the survey often implemented, could see the earthquake occurred before the various changes.
Such as Japan in 1964 Niigata earthquake in the region, happens to be the site for investigation and sinking so often repeated in the survey, it found that before the earthquake, there are precursory phenomena can be found.
Abnormal changes in the crust after the quake occurred to the time T (units) and M inter-scale earthquake similar to the experience with the following rules:

logT = 0.75M-4.27 (3)

That is, the larger the scale of the earthquake, the longer the time to prepare. As calculated by the formula According to this information is still insufficient, so that probably only a tendency, as soon as the information enrich the future after this amendment formula.
In addition, we also know that the crust associated with earthquakes occur along with changes in the area of seismic scale of the increase. Crustal movements of assumptions in the range of radius r (units cm) the radio, M r there with similar experience the following formula:

logr3 = 8.18 +15.3 M (4)

Such relations will gradually before the earthquake caused by abnormal crustal movements, may also be set up. Therefore, abnormal changes in the scope of the crust can be said to be the most powerful earthquake prediction scale one of the ways.
The recent use of light waves range finder (geodimeter) can also be very accurate observations from about 20 to 30-km distance between two points, as a result of this equipment can be measured relative movement of the crust. Japan-generation Qunsheng earthquake occurred at the observation that left two of three kilometers, in the 13 months between the elongation of 120 cm. The United States along the St. Anduin at the Aspen fault zone, seismic activity is very active, also used the same method of doing crustal movements observed.

(2) influx of post-mortem

The last major earthquake occurred before and after living in the coastal zone, often see the island's coastline, or irritable bowel urgency increased or decreased phenomenon. So rectifying tide gauge stations and strengthen the network equipment, regular surveillance tide-gauge records, is likely to find the precursor of the earthquake.

(3) changes in the crust continuous observation

Once every couple of years to do geodetic crustal movements of the detection method is effective, but not for the information. To supplement this shortcoming, a high sensitivity of tilt and telescopic dollars, do crustal movements of consecutive records. This instrument covers the greater aspect of the dozens of meters, to avoid temperature changes and miscellaneous dynamic, more in the caves of.
Japanese earthquake-generation Qunsheng, located in the earthquake-generation of access by the tilt of the water pipes from the records show that the dynamics and seismic activity are quite close counterparts, sometimes a precursor abnormal tilt there. This approach is also forecast a strong earthquake clues.

(4) seismic activity

In a certain area of seismic activity that is how seismic scale of the frequency of earthquakes, earthquake prediction research is the most basic with. Analysis of seismic scale of the earthquake greater than 3 M, the strengthening of the existing Central Weather Bureau's earthquake observation network, it can investigate the activities of the situation. M is 1-3 micro-earthquakes, a high-rate must be increased (from 10,000 to 100,000 times or more) for the earthquake-seismic observation stations can be measured. M is less than one of the most earthquake-we must rely on the ultra-high rate (about 1 million times) to earthquake measuring instrument can.
Now generally believed that the earthquake frequency and scale of N M relationship between any of the following:

logN = a-bM (5)

a and b are constants. In a number of years of observation and consideration of the area of dimensions, equivalent to M zero on the number of earthquakes, but b and the number of years of observation and consideration of the size has nothing to do, and that this line of the gradient, that is a small earthquake M M on the ratio of the number of earthquakes. Means that an area of constant seismic activity in the region and the structure of the body.
According to my research, a and b value calculated to be 400 times more than the earthquake to be reliable. Such as the use of the earthquake to seek a and b values, to use the information several decades, but the use of micro-earthquakes, perhaps only 1-2 weeks time can be done.
Since the electromagnetic seismograph begin high-rate observation, the micro-earthquakes in the rapid increase in the record. On the micro-earthquakes and earthquake of the existing relations between the two contrary views. Namely:
(A) micro-earthquakes are often the place would cause major earthquake, Japan earthquake-generation, is an example. (B) micro-earthquakes occur less frequently in the seismic belt, may also be a major earthquake, such as the United States at the Aspen St. Anduin earthquake fault zone. These two views seem contradictory, because for the earth's crust caused by the different nature. The first idea, in the crust relatively uneven areas, such as broken belt will be set up, while the second idea for the comparative strength of the crustal plates and the uniform will be set up. This earthquake prediction must first understand the seismic activity in the region and to the construction of.

(5) seismic velocity

If the crust by strong stress, after the area of seismic velocity may be changing. According to the report of observation in Asia, the P-wave velocity in the quake occurred around 15 percent of the change. The figures are alarming, we must use artificial earthquake repeated experiments to prove the speed of seismic waves and earthquakes occurred in the relationship.

(6) and the current geomagnetic

Since the invention of Proton magnetometer, an increase of geomagnetic many of the observational data, but also will improve accuracy, but the question is how the main points of difference between the earthquake occurred due to changes in the geomagnetic and natural noises.
To the current direct observation is not easy, usually between two points is the observation of potential difference. The current course and is closely related to the geomagnetic, and earthquakes have occurred relations. Is not yet fully understand, there continue to study the need.

(7) active faults and live fold

From California and the Turkish Anatolia Plateau earthquake fault movements can be clearly expressed and is closely related to the earthquake. Especially in St. Anduin at the Aspen fault zone, seismic activity is very active, often cut creeping Win \ dynamic. Using light waves in San Francisco range finder 150 miles south of the town of Ho Li Sita the results show that the annual rate of 4 centimeters. This active fault or large-scale campaign fold and are closely related to the earthquake.

(8) and the crust of rock undermine the determination of heat flow

In recent years the flow of hot crust observation and research have made great progress, the results of the earthquake and found that it is closely related to the phenomenon. Survey forecasts of such information is a very important judgement one way, in the laboratory to increase its rock samples destroyed, will be similar to pre-earthquake and the earthquake for the relationship between the theoretical basis for earthquake prediction.

(9) other means

Artificial disturb the crust observe its response, but also for earthquake prediction reference. For example, in Denver in the United States, factory waste water into underground 2-3 km deep, there was an earthquake. The number of earthquakes with the injection of increase. This relationship identified, the future may be the early release of stored energy in the earth's crust in the stock gradually increased so as not to cause large-scale earthquake.
In addition, under the past several hundred years or even thousands of years over the seismic records, using statistical methods can do to earthquake prediction, but the lack of physical According to this method.

6. Conclusion

Know from the above-mentioned earthquake prediction, existing in many ways to go by, and all countries are committed to study, but in the theory of earthquake prediction has not yet been completed, all data must be cumulative increase can be completed earlier. But seismic phenomena in nature, after all, and the solar eclipse or lunar eclipse different, accurately forecast the timing seems impossible. We know that the earthquake damage is a phenomenon, this degree of damage prediction, principle is impossible. We can predict the future of the project, only limited to the possible destruction of the region, the size of destruction and damage occurred, such as the probability. Therefore the forecast of a certain area along the scale of the earthquake occurred around 6 of the great probability that may occur at any time or state, and in a certain area is the biggest earthquake in five. There are two such warnings are expected: for example, long-term, is expected in six months or a year before the release, while short-term in a few days or a few hours before the release.
Earthquake prediction hit rate can not be 100 per cent, but at least 80 percent should be released before, as is now the accuracy of weather forecasts have value. Inaccurate forecasts, audio-visual society only create confusion, no interest at all, it should be noted the announcement.
China's earthquake scientific research has just begun to enter the stage, we can not predict prattle about the issue. At present the Central Weather Bureau has over 70 years of observation records, the National Science Board is making preparations for micro-seismic observation network, the staff engaged in research on all countries should understand the situation, going in the right direction, so the future can also promote China's earthquake prediction Research, so as to reduce earthquake damage caused by unnecessary, Zaofurenqun, national society also fortunate.

[Smile] | Posted: 2008-05-13 16:54