| 馬太福音 |
| 26:1 | 耶穌說完了這一切的話，就對門徒說： |
| 26:2 | “你們知道，過兩天是逾越節，人子將要被交給人，釘在十字架上。” |
| 26:3 | 那時，祭司長和民間的長老，聚集在大祭司稱為該亞法的院裡。 |
| 26:4 | 大家商議要用詭計拿住耶穌殺他； |
| 26:5 | 只是說：“當節的日子不可，恐怕民間生亂。” |
| 26:6 | 耶穌在伯大尼長大痲瘋的西門家裡， |
| 26:7 | 有一個女人拿著一玉瓶極貴的香膏來，趁耶穌坐席的時候，澆在他的頭上。 |
| 26:8 | 門徒看見就很不喜悅，說：“何用這樣的枉費呢！ |
齊來看看這個所謂祭司的嘴臉吧……
26:3 該亞法是耶穌在世上工作時期的大祭司，是前任大祭司亞拿的女婿。羅馬政府征服猶太後接管並指派所有的政治和宗教領袖。該亞法工作了十八年，比多數的大祭司都要長，可能因為他肯與羅馬政府合作。是他建議讓耶穌替百姓去死，好拯救整個國家（參約11:49-50）。
下手不是越快越好嗎？那些領袖所想的是……
26:3-5 這是個故意殺害耶穌的計謀，沒有這個計謀，攻擊耶穌的大眾意見就不會激增。其實，因為耶穌受歡迎，宗教領袖不想在逾越節期間捉拿祂，恐怕會引起暴動。
26:7 這個女人是馬利亞，是馬大的妹妹、拉撒路的姐姐。
26:8 馬利亞的舉動引起門徒不悅，猶大更特別不滿（參約12:4-6）。
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Matthew
| 26:1 | And it came to pass, when Jesus had finished all these sayings, he said unto his disciples, | |
| 26:2 | Ye know that after two days is the feast of the passover, and the Son of man is betrayed to be crucified. | |
| 26:3 | Then assembled together the chief priests, and the scribes, and the elders of the people, unto the palace of the high priest, who was called Caiaphas, | |
| 26:4 | And consulted that they might take Jesus by subtilty, and kill him. | |
| 26:5 | But they said, Not on the feast day, lest there be an uproar among the people. | |
| 26:6 | Now when Jesus was in Bethany, in the house of Simon the leper, | |
| 26:7 | There came unto him a woman having an alabaster box of very precious ointment, and poured it on his head, as he sat at meat. | |
| 26:8 | But when his disciples saw it, they had indignation, saying, To what purpose is this waste? |
Let's take a look at this so-called priests face it……
26:3 of the Asia and France is the work of Jesus in the world during the High Priest, a former High Priest Anna's son-in-law. Rome after the conquest of Jewish and assigned to take over all political and religious leaders. The Asia and France has 18 years of work, than most of the High Priest should be long, probably because he is willing to cooperate with the Rome government. He proposed that Jesus is for people to die, and good save the whole country (the Senate about 11:49-50).
Start not sooner the better? » Those leaders think is……
26:3-5 This is a deliberate strategy of killing Jesus, there is no such strategy to attack Jesus, and popular opinion will not increase. In fact, because the popularity of Jesus, religious leaders do not want to arrest him during Passover, I am afraid, will cause the riots.
26:7 the woman is Mary, is Ma's sister, the sister of Lazarus.
26:8 Mary's move caused displeasure disciples, Judas particularly dissatisfied with the (Senate about 12:4-6).
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------26:3 of the Asia and France is the work of Jesus in the world during the High Priest, a former High Priest Anna's son-in-law. Rome after the conquest of Jewish and assigned to take over all political and religious leaders. The Asia and France has 18 years of work, than most of the High Priest should be long, probably because he is willing to cooperate with the Rome government. He proposed that Jesus is for people to die, and good save the whole country (the Senate about 11:49-50).
Start not sooner the better? » Those leaders think is……
26:3-5 This is a deliberate strategy of killing Jesus, there is no such strategy to attack Jesus, and popular opinion will not increase. In fact, because the popularity of Jesus, religious leaders do not want to arrest him during Passover, I am afraid, will cause the riots.
26:7 the woman is Mary, is Ma's sister, the sister of Lazarus.
26:8 Mary's move caused displeasure disciples, Judas particularly dissatisfied with the (Senate about 12:4-6).
發表於2008-5-13 20:41只看該作者
國外科學家坦言：地震無法預測
地震預報是一個關係國計民生，受到各國政府與人民廣泛注意的問題，經過30年多方面的探索，至今仍是一個未取得突破的科學難題。近些年來由於一些大地震突然發生在事先末估計到的地區（如原蘇聯的亞美尼亞地震、日本的阪神地震、美國的洛杉磯地震等），以及在一些有明確預測意見的地震危險區（日本東海、美國帕克菲爾德）又未發生預期地震，促使科學家反思現行的一套地震預報體制是否有效的問題。 1996年11月在英國倫敦由英國皇家天文學會地球物理聯合會召開了“地震預報體制評估研討會”。有歐洲、美國、日本代表參加，中國沒有人出席。會上幾個主題發言都相當低調。後來，Kogan,Geller, Jackson三位教授聯名在Science發表了“地震無法預測”的論文。該文指出，在通過對地震預測進行了近30年的苦心研究以及對各地進行的地震預測考察之後，得出的結論是：地震是無法預測的，應該打消可能會在幾小時、幾天或幾個月之前預測到地震的希望。從事這方面的研究工作是一項毫無希望的工作。他們的主要論點是：
（一）總結的地震前兆都不可靠
截至目前各國報導的地震前兆現象基本上是回顧性的，缺乏嚴格的論證，沒有證明它們是前兆，而是與地震無關的環境因素。認為地熱和地下水異常，沒有提出定量的物理機制。對日本1994年在色丹島Shikotan地震前1200km以外的水井的“前兆性變化”，認為沒有任何模式可以解釋這樣的變化，是似是而非的。總的說來，他們認為這個領域的研究者常把信噪比很低的數據當作信號來進行分析，用對事先取定了參數的假設的統計檢驗方法來評估，通過事後調整參數的方法得到的研究結果。在對結果的處理中根本不考慮其他的假設。他對希臘人VAN方法進行了認真的嚴格的檢驗，認為是不行的。
（二）現行的經驗預報方法是走不通的
Ge11erf批評了關於1978年日本伊豆大島地震預報成功的說法。他說1978年伊豆半島附近發生了強烈的微震活動，在3小時內發生了18次有感地震的情況下，日本氣象廳公佈了地震情況，提醒市民注意，然而，這個通知並沒有指出地震的時間、地點和震級，當通知發出90分鐘後，在這個地區附近發生了70級地震，他認為沒有三要素的預報，不能算是成功預報。他還對日本東海地震預報提出了批評。他說：從70年代中期開始，日本公眾就被告知，在太平洋沿岸，距東京150km的東海地區，近期內有發生8級地震的可能，公眾和政府都相信“預料中的地震馬上就會發生”，還建立了“地震預知聯絡會”，然而，預報的東海地震並未如期發生，卻在其他未預報地區接連發生強震（例如1983年日本海地震、1993年奧尻島地震、1994年色丹島地震、1995年阪神地震等）。就在公眾處於“預料之中的東海地震”和下一個關東（東京）大地震”的信息轟炸之下的時候，阪神地區的公眾和地方政府錯誤地推斷自己沒有危險，從而對防震沒有進行認真準備。這種情況也加劇了阪神地震中的損失和傷亡。對美國加州帕克菲爾德地區，他認為和其他地區沒有什麼兩樣：他認為帕克菲爾德發生地震的危險並不高於加州的其他地區。他說：“以對地震的物理機制並不完善的認識為基礎”來實現地震預報是一個誘人的目標，這個目標人們從未達到過，地震預報研究是漫長的。
（三）按照地震過程的物理實質，準確預報是不可能的
由於地震過程對初始條件具有敏感的非線性依賴性，即使對地震的物理機制有了完善的認識，對地震也可能還是無法做出準確的預報。從地殼處於自組織臨界狀態來看，準確地預報地震是困難的。破裂過程是不穩定的，每次地震多大，只有在地震開始後才能被確定。因素很多，不是地震越大，孕育區就越大。地震大小帶有很大的不確定性，由破裂開始後多種因素來確定，事先就預測有多大是不現實的。
當然，在國際上也不止這一種聲音。一些著名地震專家對地震預報的成就給予了肯定，他們認為，地震學家可以對以往10年取得的某些成就感到滿意，他們認為地震發生地點、時間、震級的短期預報終將會實現，而長期預報的成就則更加突出，如美國的Allen教授成功地預報了1989年的洛馬普利特地震。他認為，在短期預報變得可靠以前，還會有許多失敗，推測可能要到2100年甚至2200年才能實現。阪神地震前日本尾池和夫曾有過中期估計，但未引起注意
地震預測研究的現況如何？
日本
有地震國之稱的日本，對於地震預測的研究不遺餘力，1962年即由地震研究學者、專家約90人組成地震預知研究小組，規劃研究計畫的藍圖，內容包含下列項目：(1) .應用測地的結果，調查地殼變動；(2).整頓各驗潮站，以檢出地殼變動；(3).辦理地殼變動連續觀測；(4).調查地震活動；(5).應用人造地震，觀測地震波速度；(6).調查地磁及地電流；(7).調查活動斷層和褶曲；(8).辦理岩石破壞實驗；(9).設置地震預測中心。
地震預測研究計畫，於1965年開始執行，網羅東京、京都、名古屋、東北及北海道等各大學以及氣象廳、國家地理院等各單位專家、學者，從事研究工作。雖已經歷了30年，但由於還沒有完成地震預測理論，目前日本還沒有發布地震預報。
美國
美國自1964年阿拉斯加大地震發生之後，對於地震預測的研究亦推動甚力，阿拉斯加大學、加州理工學院、哥倫比亞大學，以及地震情報中心等單位，亦不斷有人從事這方面的研究，並曾於1964年在東京與日本聯合舉行地震預測會議，嗣後每兩年舉辦一次，討論有關地震預測的問題。
前蘇聯
前蘇聯在中亞細亞及堪察加半島等地區從事地震預測的研究多年，1972年7月26日前蘇聯塔斯社報導，蘇維埃研究學院（SovietResearchInstitute）的科學家們預測，自1973年至1976年間，將發生3至4次大的海嘯，襲擊沿西伯利亞北部至臺灣間的4000公里海岸線，海嘯時速達400至800公里，海岸浪高可達30公尺。
因為海嘯多半由於海底發生地震所引起，能夠預測海嘯，當然能夠預測地震。但前蘇聯官方並未公佈震央的精確位置，及其預測規模與大海嘯發生的月日，所以此項預測令人懷疑。當時臺灣各大報章雜誌亦大幅刊載此項消息，上下驚動，本局亦全力查證，認為前蘇聯研究地震預報確在全力推動，惟迄無一次完全成功，特去函美國夏威夷國際海嘯資料中心查證，該中心負責人米勒博士（GaylordR.Miller）於1972年11月21日函復要點如下：經向蘇俄庫頁島的遠東科學中心（ILGG）海嘯委員會主席索羅維夫（SLSolviev）查證說：「蘇俄科學家們對於海嘯問題發表過許多有關論文，由於新聞記者的熱心、誇大渲染、曲解事實而引起...」。可見世界各國對於地震預測，還無法辦到。
國外科學家坦言：地震無法預測
地震預報是一個關係國計民生，受到各國政府與人民廣泛注意的問題，經過30年多方面的探索，至今仍是一個未取得突破的科學難題。近些年來由於一些大地震突然發生在事先末估計到的地區（如原蘇聯的亞美尼亞地震、日本的阪神地震、美國的洛杉磯地震等），以及在一些有明確預測意見的地震危險區（日本東海、美國帕克菲爾德）又未發生預期地震，促使科學家反思現行的一套地震預報體制是否有效的問題。 1996年11月在英國倫敦由英國皇家天文學會地球物理聯合會召開了“地震預報體制評估研討會”。有歐洲、美國、日本代表參加，中國沒有人出席。會上幾個主題發言都相當低調。後來，Kogan,Geller, Jackson三位教授聯名在Science發表了“地震無法預測”的論文。該文指出，在通過對地震預測進行了近30年的苦心研究以及對各地進行的地震預測考察之後，得出的結論是：地震是無法預測的，應該打消可能會在幾小時、幾天或幾個月之前預測到地震的希望。從事這方面的研究工作是一項毫無希望的工作。他們的主要論點是：
（一）總結的地震前兆都不可靠
截至目前各國報導的地震前兆現象基本上是回顧性的，缺乏嚴格的論證，沒有證明它們是前兆，而是與地震無關的環境因素。認為地熱和地下水異常，沒有提出定量的物理機制。對日本1994年在色丹島Shikotan地震前1200km以外的水井的“前兆性變化”，認為沒有任何模式可以解釋這樣的變化，是似是而非的。總的說來，他們認為這個領域的研究者常把信噪比很低的數據當作信號來進行分析，用對事先取定了參數的假設的統計檢驗方法來評估，通過事後調整參數的方法得到的研究結果。在對結果的處理中根本不考慮其他的假設。他對希臘人VAN方法進行了認真的嚴格的檢驗，認為是不行的。
（二）現行的經驗預報方法是走不通的
Ge11erf批評了關於1978年日本伊豆大島地震預報成功的說法。他說1978年伊豆半島附近發生了強烈的微震活動，在3小時內發生了18次有感地震的情況下，日本氣象廳公佈了地震情況，提醒市民注意，然而，這個通知並沒有指出地震的時間、地點和震級，當通知發出90分鐘後，在這個地區附近發生了70級地震，他認為沒有三要素的預報，不能算是成功預報。他還對日本東海地震預報提出了批評。他說：從70年代中期開始，日本公眾就被告知，在太平洋沿岸，距東京150km的東海地區，近期內有發生8級地震的可能，公眾和政府都相信“預料中的地震馬上就會發生”，還建立了“地震預知聯絡會”，然而，預報的東海地震並未如期發生，卻在其他未預報地區接連發生強震（例如1983年日本海地震、1993年奧尻島地震、1994年色丹島地震、1995年阪神地震等）。就在公眾處於“預料之中的東海地震”和下一個關東（東京）大地震”的信息轟炸之下的時候，阪神地區的公眾和地方政府錯誤地推斷自己沒有危險，從而對防震沒有進行認真準備。這種情況也加劇了阪神地震中的損失和傷亡。對美國加州帕克菲爾德地區，他認為和其他地區沒有什麼兩樣：他認為帕克菲爾德發生地震的危險並不高於加州的其他地區。他說：“以對地震的物理機制並不完善的認識為基礎”來實現地震預報是一個誘人的目標，這個目標人們從未達到過，地震預報研究是漫長的。
（三）按照地震過程的物理實質，準確預報是不可能的
由於地震過程對初始條件具有敏感的非線性依賴性，即使對地震的物理機制有了完善的認識，對地震也可能還是無法做出準確的預報。從地殼處於自組織臨界狀態來看，準確地預報地震是困難的。破裂過程是不穩定的，每次地震多大，只有在地震開始後才能被確定。因素很多，不是地震越大，孕育區就越大。地震大小帶有很大的不確定性，由破裂開始後多種因素來確定，事先就預測有多大是不現實的。
當然，在國際上也不止這一種聲音。一些著名地震專家對地震預報的成就給予了肯定，他們認為，地震學家可以對以往10年取得的某些成就感到滿意，他們認為地震發生地點、時間、震級的短期預報終將會實現，而長期預報的成就則更加突出，如美國的Allen教授成功地預報了1989年的洛馬普利特地震。他認為，在短期預報變得可靠以前，還會有許多失敗，推測可能要到2100年甚至2200年才能實現。阪神地震前日本尾池和夫曾有過中期估計，但未引起注意
地震預測研究的現況如何？
日本
有地震國之稱的日本，對於地震預測的研究不遺餘力，1962年即由地震研究學者、專家約90人組成地震預知研究小組，規劃研究計畫的藍圖，內容包含下列項目：(1) .應用測地的結果，調查地殼變動；(2).整頓各驗潮站，以檢出地殼變動；(3).辦理地殼變動連續觀測；(4).調查地震活動；(5).應用人造地震，觀測地震波速度；(6).調查地磁及地電流；(7).調查活動斷層和褶曲；(8).辦理岩石破壞實驗；(9).設置地震預測中心。
地震預測研究計畫，於1965年開始執行，網羅東京、京都、名古屋、東北及北海道等各大學以及氣象廳、國家地理院等各單位專家、學者，從事研究工作。雖已經歷了30年，但由於還沒有完成地震預測理論，目前日本還沒有發布地震預報。
美國
美國自1964年阿拉斯加大地震發生之後，對於地震預測的研究亦推動甚力，阿拉斯加大學、加州理工學院、哥倫比亞大學，以及地震情報中心等單位，亦不斷有人從事這方面的研究，並曾於1964年在東京與日本聯合舉行地震預測會議，嗣後每兩年舉辦一次，討論有關地震預測的問題。
前蘇聯
前蘇聯在中亞細亞及堪察加半島等地區從事地震預測的研究多年，1972年7月26日前蘇聯塔斯社報導，蘇維埃研究學院（SovietResearchInstitute）的科學家們預測，自1973年至1976年間，將發生3至4次大的海嘯，襲擊沿西伯利亞北部至臺灣間的4000公里海岸線，海嘯時速達400至800公里，海岸浪高可達30公尺。
因為海嘯多半由於海底發生地震所引起，能夠預測海嘯，當然能夠預測地震。但前蘇聯官方並未公佈震央的精確位置，及其預測規模與大海嘯發生的月日，所以此項預測令人懷疑。當時臺灣各大報章雜誌亦大幅刊載此項消息，上下驚動，本局亦全力查證，認為前蘇聯研究地震預報確在全力推動，惟迄無一次完全成功，特去函美國夏威夷國際海嘯資料中心查證，該中心負責人米勒博士（GaylordR.Miller）於1972年11月21日函復要點如下：經向蘇俄庫頁島的遠東科學中心（ILGG）海嘯委員會主席索羅維夫（SLSolviev）查證說：「蘇俄科學家們對於海嘯問題發表過許多有關論文，由於新聞記者的熱心、誇大渲染、曲解事實而引起...」。可見世界各國對於地震預測，還無法辦到。
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Published in looking at the author 2008-5-13 20:41
Foreign scientists said frankly: not possible to predict earthquakes
Earthquake prediction is an Guojiminsheng by the government and people of all countries of the extensive attention to the issue, after 30 years of exploring various aspects, is still not achieved a breakthrough in the scientific problems. In recent years a number of major earthquake occurred in a sudden at the end of prior estimates to the region (such as the former Soviet Union of the Armenian earthquake, the Kobe earthquake in Japan, the United States of the Los Angeles earthquake, etc.), and on some of the views of a clear forecast seismic hazard zone (Japan East China Sea , The United States Parkfield) also did not expect the earthquake, scientists to reflect on the current set of effective earthquake prediction system is the problem. November 1996 in London by the British Royal Astronomical Society Geophysical Union held a "seminar on assessment of earthquake prediction system." Europe, the United States, Japan representative to participate in, China has not attended. Several speakers at the theme is very low profile. Later, Kogan, Geller, Jackson three groups of professors published in Science "can not predict earthquakes," the papers. The article pointed out that the adoption of earthquake prediction for nearly 30 years of painstaking research, and the rest of the inspection after the earthquake prediction, come to the conclusion that: earthquakes are unpredictable, should dispel may be a few hours, days or Predicted a few months before the earthquake's hope. Engage in this kind of research work is a hopeless task. Their main argument is:
(A) Summary of earthquake precursors are not reliable
As of now all the reports of earthquake precursors is essentially retrospective, lack of strict proof, did not prove that they are precursors, but the earthquake has nothing to do with environmental factors. That the unusual heat and groundwater, no quantitative physical mechanism. In 1994 the Japanese island of Shikotan Shikotan earthquake before the 1200 km away from the wells of the "precursor of change" that no model could explain such a change, is specious. In general, their view of researchers in this field often low SNR as a signal to the data analysis used to set the parameters in advance from the assumption that the statistical methods to assess the inspection, after the adjustment through the parameters of The study results. In the treatment of the results did not consider other assumptions. He Greeks VAN method of a serious strict testing that is not acceptable.
(B) The existing method of forecasting experience is impassable
Ge11erf criticism on the 1978 Japan's Izu Oshima said the success of earthquake prediction. He said that in 1978 took place near the Izu Peninsula, a strong microseismicity, in three hours within the 18 felt tremors of the circumstances, the Japan Meteorological Agency announced the earthquake, reminded the public that, however, that this did not notice the earthquake Time, location, and magnitude, when the notice is given 90 minutes later, in the area near the 7 0 earthquake, he did not think the three elements of forecasting, prediction can not be considered successful. He also Japan's Tokai earthquake prediction by the criticism. He said: From the mid-1970s, the Japanese public was informed that in the Pacific coast, 150 km from Tokyo in the East China Sea, in the near future there may be eight of the earthquake, the public and the Government believe that the "expected in the earthquake will take place immediately ", Also established a" predictable earthquake contact ", however, earthquake prediction in the East China Sea has not occurred as scheduled, but not in other regions scheduled for a series of strong earthquakes (such as the Sea of Japan earthquake in 1983, 1993 Austrian Rishiri Island earthquake, the 1994 Shikotan Island earthquake, the 1995 Kobe earthquake, etc.). In the public in the "earthquake expected in the East China Sea" and the next Kanto (Tokyo) earthquake, "the information under the bombing, the Kobe region of the public and local governments mistakenly infer their own without risk, thus preventing earthquakes and no serious preparations . This situation has aggravated the Hanshin earthquake in losses and casualties. Parkfield in California of the United States, he considered that and other areas no different: He believes that the Parkfield earthquake risk in California is not higher than in other regions, he said : "The physical mechanism of the earthquake is not a sound basis for understanding" to achieve earthquake prediction is a tempting target, this goal has never reached the people, earthquake prediction research is a long one.
(C) of the earthquake process in accordance with the physical real, accurate forecasting is impossible
Since the earthquake process is sensitive to initial conditions of nonlinear dependence, even for the physical mechanism of the earthquake with a sound understanding of earthquakes or may not be able to make accurate forecasts. From the crust in a self-organized criticality, accurate earthquake prediction is difficult. The breakdown process is unstable, how much of each earthquake, only began after the earthquake can be determined. There are many factors, not the bigger earthquake bred the greater area. Size of the earthquake with a lot of uncertainty, broken by the start of a variety of factors to determine in advance how much the forecast is unrealistic.
Of course, the international community has a voice more than this. Some well-known earthquake experts to the achievements of earthquake prediction has certainly, in their view, seismologists can be achieved in the past 10 some are satisfied with the achievements, they think that the earthquake took place, time and magnitude of short-term forecast will eventually be realized, and The achievements of long-term forecast is more prominent, such as the United States Professor Allen's successful prediction of the 1989 earthquake Luoma Pu Gbadolite. He believes that in the short term forecast is reliable before, there will be many failures, may have to speculate that in 2100 or even 2200 can be achieved. Kobe earthquake in Japan before the end of Chi-fu and medium-term that there had been estimated, but did not draw attention
Earthquake Prediction of how the current situation »
Japan
States have called the earthquake in Japan, earthquake prediction research efforts in 1962 from the earthquake research scholars, experts, composed of about 90 people predict seismic research group, the blueprint for planning research projects, which include the following items: (1) . Application of the test results, the survey crustal movements, (2). Rectification of the tide gauge stations, to the detection of crustal movements, (3). Crustal movements for continuous observation, (4). Seismic survey activities (5). Application of Artificial Earthquake observation seismic velocity (6). Geomagnetic survey and the Current (7). Fault and fold investigative activities, (8). For destruction of experimental rock (9). Settings earthquake prediction centre.
Earthquake prediction research program, started in 1965, recruited Tokyo, Kyoto, Nagoya, and the northeast of Hokkaido, and other universities and the Meteorological Agency, the National Geographic Institute, and other units of experts and scholars engaged in research work. Although experienced a 30, but has not completed due to earthquake prediction theory, Japan has not yet released earthquake prediction.
United States
The United States since the 1964 Alaska earthquake occurred after the earthquake prediction research is also promoting the very edge, the University of Alaska, California Institute of Technology, Columbia University, and the earthquake information center, and other units, some people have been engaged in this kind of research, and in 1964 In Tokyo and Japan held a joint meeting of earthquake prediction, and later held once every two years to discuss issues relating to the issue of earthquake prediction.
The former Soviet Union
The former Soviet Union in Asia and the Kamchatka Peninsula and other areas in earthquake prediction research for many years, July 26, 1972 the Soviet Tass news agency reported that Soviet research institutes (SovietResearchInstitute) scientists predict, since 1973-76, will 3-4, in the tsunami attack in northern Siberia to Taiwan along the 4,000 km coastline, the tsunami speed of 400-800 km, coastal waves up to 30 meters.
As most of the tsunami caused by undersea earthquakes, tsunamis can be predicted, of course, to predict earthquakes. But the former Soviet Union was no official announcement of the precise location of the epicenter, and its size and forecast the tsunami occurred on the day, so the forecast is doubtful. At that time, Taiwan's major newspapers and magazines published the news also rose sharply, from top to bottom alerted, the Council also fully verify that the former Soviet Union research in earthquake prediction is to promote, but so far without a complete success, special written to Hawaii in the United States to verify the International Tsunami Information Centre, The Centre for Miller (GaylordR.Miller) on November 21, 1972 Hanfu main points are as follows: Sakhalin to the Russian Far East Science Center (ILGG) tsunami Chairman of the Committee Suoluoweifu (SLSolviev) to verify that : "Soviet scientists for tsunami-related issues in many papers, due to the enthusiasm of journalists, exaggerated exaggerated, distorted facts and the cause ...". This shows that countries in the world for earthquake prediction, but also impossible.
Foreign scientists said frankly: not possible to predict earthquakes
Earthquake prediction is an Guojiminsheng by the government and people of all countries of the extensive attention to the issue, after 30 years of exploring various aspects, is still not achieved a breakthrough in the scientific problems. In recent years a number of major earthquake occurred in a sudden at the end of prior estimates to the region (such as the former Soviet Union of the Armenian earthquake, the Kobe earthquake in Japan, the United States of the Los Angeles earthquake, etc.), and on some of the views of a clear forecast seismic hazard zone (Japan East China Sea , The United States Parkfield) also did not expect the earthquake, scientists to reflect on the current set of effective earthquake prediction system is the problem. November 1996 in London by the British Royal Astronomical Society Geophysical Union held a "seminar on assessment of earthquake prediction system." Europe, the United States, Japan representative to participate in, China has not attended. Several speakers at the theme is very low profile. Later, Kogan, Geller, Jackson three groups of professors published in Science "can not predict earthquakes," the papers. The article pointed out that the adoption of earthquake prediction for nearly 30 years of painstaking research, and the rest of the inspection after the earthquake prediction, come to the conclusion that: earthquakes are unpredictable, should dispel may be a few hours, days or Predicted a few months before the earthquake's hope. Engage in this kind of research work is a hopeless task. Their main argument is:
(A) Summary of earthquake precursors are not reliable
As of now all the reports of earthquake precursors is essentially retrospective, lack of strict proof, did not prove that they are precursors, but the earthquake has nothing to do with environmental factors. That the unusual heat and groundwater, no quantitative physical mechanism. In 1994 the Japanese island of Shikotan Shikotan earthquake before the 1200 km away from the wells of the "precursor of change" that no model could explain such a change, is specious. In general, their view of researchers in this field often low SNR as a signal to the data analysis used to set the parameters in advance from the assumption that the statistical methods to assess the inspection, after the adjustment through the parameters of The study results. In the treatment of the results did not consider other assumptions. He Greeks VAN method of a serious strict testing that is not acceptable.
(B) The existing method of forecasting experience is impassable
Ge11erf criticism on the 1978 Japan's Izu Oshima said the success of earthquake prediction. He said that in 1978 took place near the Izu Peninsula, a strong microseismicity, in three hours within the 18 felt tremors of the circumstances, the Japan Meteorological Agency announced the earthquake, reminded the public that, however, that this did not notice the earthquake Time, location, and magnitude, when the notice is given 90 minutes later, in the area near the 7 0 earthquake, he did not think the three elements of forecasting, prediction can not be considered successful. He also Japan's Tokai earthquake prediction by the criticism. He said: From the mid-1970s, the Japanese public was informed that in the Pacific coast, 150 km from Tokyo in the East China Sea, in the near future there may be eight of the earthquake, the public and the Government believe that the "expected in the earthquake will take place immediately ", Also established a" predictable earthquake contact ", however, earthquake prediction in the East China Sea has not occurred as scheduled, but not in other regions scheduled for a series of strong earthquakes (such as the Sea of Japan earthquake in 1983, 1993 Austrian Rishiri Island earthquake, the 1994 Shikotan Island earthquake, the 1995 Kobe earthquake, etc.). In the public in the "earthquake expected in the East China Sea" and the next Kanto (Tokyo) earthquake, "the information under the bombing, the Kobe region of the public and local governments mistakenly infer their own without risk, thus preventing earthquakes and no serious preparations . This situation has aggravated the Hanshin earthquake in losses and casualties. Parkfield in California of the United States, he considered that and other areas no different: He believes that the Parkfield earthquake risk in California is not higher than in other regions, he said : "The physical mechanism of the earthquake is not a sound basis for understanding" to achieve earthquake prediction is a tempting target, this goal has never reached the people, earthquake prediction research is a long one.
(C) of the earthquake process in accordance with the physical real, accurate forecasting is impossible
Since the earthquake process is sensitive to initial conditions of nonlinear dependence, even for the physical mechanism of the earthquake with a sound understanding of earthquakes or may not be able to make accurate forecasts. From the crust in a self-organized criticality, accurate earthquake prediction is difficult. The breakdown process is unstable, how much of each earthquake, only began after the earthquake can be determined. There are many factors, not the bigger earthquake bred the greater area. Size of the earthquake with a lot of uncertainty, broken by the start of a variety of factors to determine in advance how much the forecast is unrealistic.
Of course, the international community has a voice more than this. Some well-known earthquake experts to the achievements of earthquake prediction has certainly, in their view, seismologists can be achieved in the past 10 some are satisfied with the achievements, they think that the earthquake took place, time and magnitude of short-term forecast will eventually be realized, and The achievements of long-term forecast is more prominent, such as the United States Professor Allen's successful prediction of the 1989 earthquake Luoma Pu Gbadolite. He believes that in the short term forecast is reliable before, there will be many failures, may have to speculate that in 2100 or even 2200 can be achieved. Kobe earthquake in Japan before the end of Chi-fu and medium-term that there had been estimated, but did not draw attention
Earthquake Prediction of how the current situation »
Japan
States have called the earthquake in Japan, earthquake prediction research efforts in 1962 from the earthquake research scholars, experts, composed of about 90 people predict seismic research group, the blueprint for planning research projects, which include the following items: (1) . Application of the test results, the survey crustal movements, (2). Rectification of the tide gauge stations, to the detection of crustal movements, (3). Crustal movements for continuous observation, (4). Seismic survey activities (5). Application of Artificial Earthquake observation seismic velocity (6). Geomagnetic survey and the Current (7). Fault and fold investigative activities, (8). For destruction of experimental rock (9). Settings earthquake prediction centre.
Earthquake prediction research program, started in 1965, recruited Tokyo, Kyoto, Nagoya, and the northeast of Hokkaido, and other universities and the Meteorological Agency, the National Geographic Institute, and other units of experts and scholars engaged in research work. Although experienced a 30, but has not completed due to earthquake prediction theory, Japan has not yet released earthquake prediction.
United States
The United States since the 1964 Alaska earthquake occurred after the earthquake prediction research is also promoting the very edge, the University of Alaska, California Institute of Technology, Columbia University, and the earthquake information center, and other units, some people have been engaged in this kind of research, and in 1964 In Tokyo and Japan held a joint meeting of earthquake prediction, and later held once every two years to discuss issues relating to the issue of earthquake prediction.
The former Soviet Union
The former Soviet Union in Asia and the Kamchatka Peninsula and other areas in earthquake prediction research for many years, July 26, 1972 the Soviet Tass news agency reported that Soviet research institutes (SovietResearchInstitute) scientists predict, since 1973-76, will 3-4, in the tsunami attack in northern Siberia to Taiwan along the 4,000 km coastline, the tsunami speed of 400-800 km, coastal waves up to 30 meters.
As most of the tsunami caused by undersea earthquakes, tsunamis can be predicted, of course, to predict earthquakes. But the former Soviet Union was no official announcement of the precise location of the epicenter, and its size and forecast the tsunami occurred on the day, so the forecast is doubtful. At that time, Taiwan's major newspapers and magazines published the news also rose sharply, from top to bottom alerted, the Council also fully verify that the former Soviet Union research in earthquake prediction is to promote, but so far without a complete success, special written to Hawaii in the United States to verify the International Tsunami Information Centre, The Centre for Miller (GaylordR.Miller) on November 21, 1972 Hanfu main points are as follows: Sakhalin to the Russian Far East Science Center (ILGG) tsunami Chairman of the Committee Suoluoweifu (SLSolviev) to verify that : "Soviet scientists for tsunami-related issues in many papers, due to the enthusiasm of journalists, exaggerated exaggerated, distorted facts and the cause ...". This shows that countries in the world for earthquake prediction, but also impossible.
No comments:
Post a Comment