|26:9||For this ointment might have been sold for much, and given to the poor.|
|26:10||When Jesus understood it, he said unto them, Why trouble ye the woman? for she hath wrought a good work upon me.|
|26:11||For ye have the poor always with you; but me ye have not always.|
|26:12||For in that she hath poured this ointment on my body, she did it for my burial.|
|26:13||Verily I say unto you, Wheresoever this gospel shall be preached in the whole world, there shall also this, that this woman hath done, be told for a memorial of her.|
|26:14||Then one of the twelve, called Judas Iscariot, went unto the chief priests,|
|26:15||And said unto them, What will ye give me, and I will deliver him unto you? And they covenanted with him for thirty pieces of silver.|
|26:16||And from that time he sought opportunity to betray him.|
Matthew 26:6-13 and Mark on this matter before the Last Supper, and John will be in place before Jesus entered Jerusalem, the three, John recorded the most likely By the time the order. We must realize that the Gospel authors to write the main purpose is to accurately record the information of Jesus, rather than record time of Jesus's life. Matthew and Ma can choose this matter on the record before the seller Judah, so that the full commitment of Christ and Mary betrayal of Judas betrayed Jesus to become a strong contrast.
It is true also that the disciples, Jesus Ho Chu Ciyan » Are……
26:11 Jesus said: "Because you often poor and the same" (Senate Shanghai 15:11), is not neglected the needs of the poor, the Bible calls upon us to care about people in need. However, Jesus said to Mary highlighted the special devotion to him.
Why Judas betrayed Jesus » I would like to forget, as he has the grace of him? »
26:14-15 why Judas betrayed Jesus » No detailed account of the Bible, he may be the same as the other disciples that Jesus launched a revolution and the overthrow of Rome regime, and he in charge of money, but also hope that the new government in Jesus, occupy an important position, like Jacob, John Like the idea of (the Senate could 10:35-37). But to see Jesus commended Mary present value equivalent to one year wage Xianggao, he may realize that Jesus is not seeing the country or political in nature, is the spiritual, if follow Jesus, the money can not be achieved And the status of desire, to betray Jesus in exchange for money and the joy of those religious leaders.
The holidays are not dead, the death of other great significance, you know »
Only Matthew 26:15 records of Judas betrayed Jesus in exchange for money the exact number - 30 of money, this is the price of a slave (the Senate to 21:32). Originally religious leaders intend to capture only after the Passover Jesus, but because of Judas offer, the early realization of their conspiracy. God fulfilled the Old Testament prophecy: Jesus became the Passover lamb, and death to remove the world's sins (the Senate about 1:29).
自 古以來人類對於地震就有莫大的關懷。因為地震會在一瞬間把一個繁華的大都巿破壞殆盡，變成廢墟，一次造成幾萬人死傷者並不罕見。能不能預先推測地震的發 生，也一直成為大家心目中所關心的問題。住在經常有地震發生的臺灣，對於何時將有地震自然更要關切。古今中外研究這個題目的科學家以及所謂民間專家，多得 不勝枚舉。
為 了方便本文的討論，先要簡單介紹地震大小的概念。地震的大小有兩種涵義：一為地震本身的大小，例如我們說「今天伊朗發生大地震」，雖然我們實際上並沒有感 覺到這次地震，但從受到災害的程度或地震儀記錄可以推知它的大小；此所謂「地震」，表示整個地震現象，包括地震本身的大小在內。另外一種稱為「地震動」， 簡稱「地動」的大小，為了區別起見，我們姑且稱它為「地動的強弱」，譬如我們說「昨天晚上的地震搖得很厲害，所以被它搖醒了」；此所稱地震，即屬「地 動」。地動的強弱通常用「震度階級」簡稱「震度」來表示。關於震度，有各種不同的定義，在臺灣目前採用1至6級如第一表。其他尚有許多方法，例如 Mercalli, Cancani, Rossi-Forel, Modified Mercalli, MSK, JMA等。震度也可以用物理上加速度（單位為gal）表示。
地震本身的大小稱為「地震規模」（Earthquake magnitude）可用人體感覺的範圍（如面積或有感距離半徑等），離震央某一距離的震度或地動最大振幅表示，並可用物理上的能量（單位為erg）表 示。地震規模比較常用者為1935年Richter氏所訂定，即在震央距離100公里處的標準扭轉地震儀（因有週期0.8秒，阻尼常數0.8，最大倍率 2,800倍）所測記象最大振幅A（單位為μ）的常用對數為地震規模M：
假 定有人說，他能預測地震，並且說：「明天花蓮將會發生地震」。這種預測沒有明白表示地震規模及可能發生的震度，顯然毫無意義。大家都知道，花蓮地方人體感 覺不到的地震（叫做無感地震）經常在發生。可見這預測是很容易猜中的。縱然有人預測說：「明天臺灣地區會發生有感地震」，據筆者統計，臺灣地區每年發生有 感地震有二百多次，故猜中率也一定很高，且指定區域比一個縣巿還大，所以也沒有多大意義。
由此可見我們不預測則已，要做地震預測，必須明確指出， 地震規模、震度、地震發生地點以及地震發生時間才有意義。通常地震預測所指的地震規模常在6以上，且會造成災害的地震，震央位置至少要在50公里×50公 里見方範圍內，發生時期長期者數個月至數年，短期者數小時乃至數天的程度。
在 美國自從1964年阿拉斯加大地震發生後，對於地震預測的關心和興趣逐漸提高，現在阿拉斯加大學、加州理工大學、哥倫比亞大學以及地震情報中心等機構也在 做地震預測的研究，且曾和日本聯合舉行地震預測會議，於1964年在東京召開。嗣後每隔兩年舉辦一次，討論有關地震預測的問題。
國 際連繫方面，1967年在瑞士蘇黎支所召開的國際大地測量及地球物理協會（IUGG）總會中成立地震預測工作小組，共有委員十三人，計日本3人，俄國3 人，美國2人，英國、智利、土耳其、紐西蘭、南斯拉夫等國各1人。建議在土耳其Anatolia高原，在國際協辦下從事地震預測的研究，1971年 IUGG總會決議，加強地震預測的研究，且把工作小組改為常設委員會。
最 近利用光波測距儀（geodimeter）也可以很準確的觀測相距約二、三十公里的兩點間距離，由於此種儀器可測地殼的相對運動。日本松代群生地震發生時 觀測結果表示，離開3公里的兩點，於13個月間伸長120公分。美國沿聖安杜禮阿斯斷層地帶，地震活動非常活躍，也用同樣方法在做地殼變動觀測。
某 地區的地震活動即地震規模多大的地震發生的頻率資料，是研究地震預測最基本的憑藉。分析地震規模M大於3的地震，加強現有中央氣象局的地震觀測網，就可以 調查它的活動狀況。M等於1至3的微地震，必須增加設有高倍率（1萬至10萬倍以上）地震儀的微地震觀測站才能測到。M小於1的極微地震必須依靠超高倍率 （100萬倍左右）地震儀才能測到。
(A) 微地震常常發生的地方會引起大地震，日本松代地震就是一個例子。(B)微地震不常發生的地震帶中，也可能發生大地震，例如美國聖安杜禮阿斯斷層地帶的地 震。這兩種見解似乎彼此矛盾，原因在於針對性質不同的地殼所致。第一種想法，在地殼比較不均勻的地區如破碎帶就會成立；而第二種想法對於比較強度大而均勻 的地殼板會成立。由此預測地震必須先了解該地區地震活動及其地體的構造。
由 美國加州及土耳其Anatolia高原的大地震可明確表示斷層運動和地震發生有密切關係。尤其在聖安杜禮阿斯斷層地帶，地震活動非常活躍，經常有剪斷匍匐 運\動。利用光波測距儀在舊金山南方150哩的小鎮何利斯塔測定的結果，顯示它的速度為每年4公分。這種活斷層或較大規模的褶曲運動都和地震發生有密切關 係。
從 以上所說可知地震預測，現有許多途徑可循，而各國正致力研究中，但在地震預測理論還沒有完成前，各種觀測資料必須累積增多，才能提早完成。不過地震現象在 本質上畢竟和日蝕或月蝕不同，預測準確的發生時間似不可能。我們知道地震是一種破壞現象，這種破壞程度的預測，原理上是不可能的。我們將來所能預測的項 目，僅能限於破壞可能發生的地域，破壞的大小及破壞發生的機率等。因此預測的內容大致屬於某地區規模6左右的地震發生的機率很大或者隨時可能發生的狀態， 且在某地區的最大震度是5級。這種警報預計可分兩種：例如長期者可望在半年前或一年前發佈，短期者則在數天前或幾小時前發佈。
我 國地震科學之研究剛進入開始的階段，不能侈談預測問題。目前中央氣象局有七十餘年的觀測紀錄，國家科學委員會正在籌備微地震觀測網，從事研究工作人員應了 解各國研究的狀況，朝向正確方向走去，俾將來我國也能推動地震預測的研究，藉以減輕因地震引起的不必要損害，造福人群，國家社會之幸也。
Since ancient times human beings have the great earthquake of care. Because of the earthquake in a moment of the most prosperous market has been completely ruined, turned into ruins, one of tens of thousands of dead victims are not uncommon. Can not speculate in advance of the earthquake occurred, has become the eyes of all issues of concern. Living in the quake occurred frequently in Taiwan, when there will be more natural to be concerned about the earthquake. Research on the subject of ancient and modern scientists, and the so-called non-governmental experts, the list goes on and more.
The last 20 years the United States, Japan, Russia and other scientifically advanced countries, which have had considerable success continue to study. This paper reports the research findings, particularly on the issue of earthquake prediction and the recent development of the situation, provide some brief introduction.
Second, the scale of the earthquake and tsunami
To facilitate this discussion, first a brief introduction of the concept of earthquake size. The size of the earthquake there are two meanings: one for the size of the earthquake itself, for example, we said that "today the earthquake in Iran", although we actually did not feel the quake, but by the disaster or the extent of seismograph records can be pushed to know it The size of this so-called "earthquake", said the seismic phenomena, including earthquakes, the size of their own. Also known as a "shocked", referred to as "the earth will quake," the size, for the sake of distinction, Let us call it "the earth will quake's strength", for example, we said "Last night's powerful earthquake will shake it, so it was a Yaoxing "This earthquake claimed, it is an" earth will quake. " Usually the strength of the earth will quake with "shock of class" referred to as "tsunami" to that. On the earthquake, there are various different definitions currently used in Taiwan 1-6 as the first table. There are many other ways, such as the Mercalli, Cancani, Rossi-Forel, Modified Mercalli, MSK, JMA, and so on. Earthquakes can also use physical acceleration (in gal) said.
The size of the earthquake itself as "the scale of the earthquake" (Earthquake magnitude) can feel the scope of the human body (such as size or distance felt radius), a certain distance from the epicenter of the earthquake or the maximum amplitude that the earth will quake and available on the physical energy ( Units for the erg) said. Seismic scale of those commonly used for the 1935 Richter's set, that is 100 kilometers from the epicenter of the earthquake-standard reverse (because of a cycle of 0.8 seconds, 0.8 damping constant, the largest ratio of 28 times) in mind, as measured by the maximum amplitude A ( Units for μ) of the few commonly used for seismic scale M:
M = logA (1)
Zhen said in front of the positive integers, but the use of seismic scale of plus or minus a few that are usually credited to a minority. Seismic scale and the relationship between the size of the earthquake, please refer to table the second and third table.
M-scale earthquake and tsunami following:
M = 4.85-0.5I100 (2)
I100-in on that 100 km from the epicenter of the earthquake. We know that this type to the source and depth of the epicenter from the same location 1996, with the seismic shock of the scale of increase.
Third, what is earthquake prediction
It was assumed that he can predict earthquakes, and said: "Tomorrow will be an earthquake in Hualien." This forecast does not understand that the scale of the earthquake and tsunami might happen, obviously meaningless. As we all know, feeling less than human Hualien where the earthquake (called no sense earthquakes) often occurred. This shows that this forecast is very easy guessed. Although some people predicted that: "Taiwan will happen tomorrow felt tremors", according to the author to statistics, Taiwan has felt tremors in each of the 200 many times, it is also certain to guess high, and a designated area than the county also members of the So also does not mean much.
This shows that we do not have been forecasting, earthquake prediction to be done, it must be clear that the scale of the earthquake, tsunami, the earthquake occurred and the time the earthquake would be meaningful. Earthquake prediction is usually referred to the size of the earthquake in 6 more often, and can result in the earthquake disaster, at least in the location of the epicenter 50 km × 50公里square, within a period of long-term, a few months to several years, and even a few hours to several short-term The extent of days.
Such forecasts can be said that countries Bainiantaiji. To protect the lives and property of citizens, is a very pressing issue, the earthquake is also the highest aspirations of scholars over the years. Although the earthquake occurred on the body still can not fully understand that, but the relevant research in recent years it has made significant progress. Hope that the near future to achieve the above mentioned extent of the forecast.
Fourth, countries on the status of
Homeland narrow and often by the earthquake in Japan, the most interested in earthquake prediction has been made the greatest efforts. 1962, earthquake research scholars composed of about 90 people had anticipated earthquake research group, produced a blueprint for research projects, which include the following items:
(1) the results of geodetic survey crustal movements;
(2) rectification of the tide gauge stations, to enable the detection of crustal movements;
(3) changes in the crust for continuous observation;
(4) to investigate seismic activity;
(5) of man-made earthquake, seismic velocity observations;
(6) geomagnetic survey and the current;
(7) to investigate the fault and the fold of living;
(8) for destruction of experimental rock, the heat flow in the crust;
(9) set predict earthquake observation centre.
In accordance with this plan involves Tokyo, Kyoto, Nagoya, and the northeast of Hokkaido, and other universities and the Meteorological Agency, the Geographical Survey Institute, and other expert bodies set up in 1965, began the actual work for a period of 10 years to, so as to achieve the forecast target.
In the United States since the 1964 earthquake in Alaska, earthquake prediction for the concern and interest in improving gradually, University of Alaska, California Polytechnic University, Columbia University and the earthquake information center, and other agencies are doing earthquake prediction research, and Japan and have joint Earthquake Prediction held meetings in 1964 held in Tokyo. Subsequently held once every two years to discuss issues related to earthquake prediction.
Russia in Central Asia and the Kamchatka Peninsula and other regions are doing earthquake prediction research. Recent newspaper reports, Russia Forecast for 1973-1975 of Sakhalin to Taiwan may occur between the tsunami news. Forecast due to the tsunami must be able to forecast the earthquake (seismic scale of 7 or more) in order to do so, the Soviet Union that the study may have been some successes.
International links, in 1967 Ruishisuli branch meeting of the International Association of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) in the establishment of the Federation of earthquake prediction working group, a total of 13 members, including Japan 3, Russia 3, United States 2, Britain, Chile, Turkey, New Zealand, Yugoslavia and other countries one each. Turkey, Anatolia Plateau in the proposal, under the assistance of the international research in earthquake prediction, 1971 IUGG Association resolution to strengthen the earthquake prediction research, and the working group into a Standing Committee.
5, earthquake prediction method
Said earlier, the agency earthquake occurred up to now, no Chedi know, that forecast a way through the most effective, everyone has his or her argument, but it seems only rely on observation over the past several decades of experience more reliable. Below is a brief introduction we think the most effective ways are as follows:
(1) geodetic methods
Many records in the past, when the earthquake occurred, as would happen crustal movements, and sometimes occur before the earthquake. Therefore earthquake measuring around the epicenter region, to know whether changes in the crust. If the survey often implemented, could see the earthquake occurred before the various changes.
Such as Japan in 1964 Niigata earthquake in the region, happens to be the site for investigation and sinking so often repeated in the survey, it found that before the earthquake, there are precursory phenomena can be found.
Abnormal changes in the crust after the quake occurred to the time T (units) and M inter-scale earthquake similar to the experience with the following rules:
logT = 0.75M-4.27 (3)
That is, the larger the scale of the earthquake, the longer the time to prepare. As calculated by the formula According to this information is still insufficient, so that probably only a tendency, as soon as the information enrich the future after this amendment formula.
In addition, we also know that the crust associated with earthquakes occur along with changes in the area of seismic scale of the increase. Crustal movements of assumptions in the range of radius r (units cm) the radio, M r there with similar experience the following formula:
logr3 = 8.18 +15.3 M (4)
Such relations will gradually before the earthquake caused by abnormal crustal movements, may also be set up. Therefore, abnormal changes in the scope of the crust can be said to be the most powerful earthquake prediction scale one of the ways.
The recent use of light waves range finder (geodimeter) can also be very accurate observations from about 20 to 30-km distance between two points, as a result of this equipment can be measured relative movement of the crust. Japan-generation Qunsheng earthquake occurred at the observation that left two of three kilometers, in the 13 months between the elongation of 120 cm. The United States along the St. Anduin at the Aspen fault zone, seismic activity is very active, also used the same method of doing crustal movements observed.
(2) influx of post-mortem
The last major earthquake occurred before and after living in the coastal zone, often see the island's coastline, or irritable bowel urgency increased or decreased phenomenon. So rectifying tide gauge stations and strengthen the network equipment, regular surveillance tide-gauge records, is likely to find the precursor of the earthquake.
(3) changes in the crust continuous observation
Once every couple of years to do geodetic crustal movements of the detection method is effective, but not for the information. To supplement this shortcoming, a high sensitivity of tilt and telescopic dollars, do crustal movements of consecutive records. This instrument covers the greater aspect of the dozens of meters, to avoid temperature changes and miscellaneous dynamic, more in the caves of.
Japanese earthquake-generation Qunsheng, located in the earthquake-generation of access by the tilt of the water pipes from the records show that the dynamics and seismic activity are quite close counterparts, sometimes a precursor abnormal tilt there. This approach is also forecast a strong earthquake clues.
(4) seismic activity
In a certain area of seismic activity that is how seismic scale of the frequency of earthquakes, earthquake prediction research is the most basic with. Analysis of seismic scale of the earthquake greater than 3 M, the strengthening of the existing Central Weather Bureau's earthquake observation network, it can investigate the activities of the situation. M is 1-3 micro-earthquakes, a high-rate must be increased (from 10,000 to 100,000 times or more) for the earthquake-seismic observation stations can be measured. M is less than one of the most earthquake-we must rely on the ultra-high rate (about 1 million times) to earthquake measuring instrument can.
Now generally believed that the earthquake frequency and scale of N M relationship between any of the following:
logN = a-bM (5)
a and b are constants. In a number of years of observation and consideration of the area of dimensions, equivalent to M zero on the number of earthquakes, but b and the number of years of observation and consideration of the size has nothing to do, and that this line of the gradient, that is a small earthquake M M on the ratio of the number of earthquakes. Means that an area of constant seismic activity in the region and the structure of the body.
According to my research, a and b value calculated to be 400 times more than the earthquake to be reliable. Such as the use of the earthquake to seek a and b values, to use the information several decades, but the use of micro-earthquakes, perhaps only 1-2 weeks time can be done.
Since the electromagnetic seismograph begin high-rate observation, the micro-earthquakes in the rapid increase in the record. On the micro-earthquakes and earthquake of the existing relations between the two contrary views. Namely:
(A) micro-earthquakes are often the place would cause major earthquake, Japan earthquake-generation, is an example. (B) micro-earthquakes occur less frequently in the seismic belt, may also be a major earthquake, such as the United States at the Aspen St. Anduin earthquake fault zone. These two views seem contradictory, because for the earth's crust caused by the different nature. The first idea, in the crust relatively uneven areas, such as broken belt will be set up, while the second idea for the comparative strength of the crustal plates and the uniform will be set up. This earthquake prediction must first understand the seismic activity in the region and to the construction of.
(5) seismic velocity
If the crust by strong stress, after the area of seismic velocity may be changing. According to the report of observation in Asia, the P-wave velocity in the quake occurred around 15 percent of the change. The figures are alarming, we must use artificial earthquake repeated experiments to prove the speed of seismic waves and earthquakes occurred in the relationship.
(6) and the current geomagnetic
Since the invention of Proton magnetometer, an increase of geomagnetic many of the observational data, but also will improve accuracy, but the question is how the main points of difference between the earthquake occurred due to changes in the geomagnetic and natural noises.
To the current direct observation is not easy, usually between two points is the observation of potential difference. The current course and is closely related to the geomagnetic, and earthquakes have occurred relations. Is not yet fully understand, there continue to study the need.
(7) active faults and live fold
From California and the Turkish Anatolia Plateau earthquake fault movements can be clearly expressed and is closely related to the earthquake. Especially in St. Anduin at the Aspen fault zone, seismic activity is very active, often cut creeping Win \ dynamic. Using light waves in San Francisco range finder 150 miles south of the town of Ho Li Sita the results show that the annual rate of 4 centimeters. This active fault or large-scale campaign fold and are closely related to the earthquake.
(8) and the crust of rock undermine the determination of heat flow
In recent years the flow of hot crust observation and research have made great progress, the results of the earthquake and found that it is closely related to the phenomenon. Survey forecasts of such information is a very important judgement one way, in the laboratory to increase its rock samples destroyed, will be similar to pre-earthquake and the earthquake for the relationship between the theoretical basis for earthquake prediction.
(9) other means
Artificial disturb the crust observe its response, but also for earthquake prediction reference. For example, in Denver in the United States, factory waste water into underground 2-3 km deep, there was an earthquake. The number of earthquakes with the injection of increase. This relationship identified, the future may be the early release of stored energy in the earth's crust in the stock gradually increased so as not to cause large-scale earthquake.
In addition, under the past several hundred years or even thousands of years over the seismic records, using statistical methods can do to earthquake prediction, but the lack of physical According to this method.
Know from the above-mentioned earthquake prediction, existing in many ways to go by, and all countries are committed to study, but in the theory of earthquake prediction has not yet been completed, all data must be cumulative increase can be completed earlier. But seismic phenomena in nature, after all, and the solar eclipse or lunar eclipse different, accurately forecast the timing seems impossible. We know that the earthquake damage is a phenomenon, this degree of damage prediction, principle is impossible. We can predict the future of the project, only limited to the possible destruction of the region, the size of destruction and damage occurred, such as the probability. Therefore the forecast of a certain area along the scale of the earthquake occurred around 6 of the great probability that may occur at any time or state, and in a certain area is the biggest earthquake in five. There are two such warnings are expected: for example, long-term, is expected in six months or a year before the release, while short-term in a few days or a few hours before the release.
Earthquake prediction hit rate can not be 100 per cent, but at least 80 percent should be released before, as is now the accuracy of weather forecasts have value. Inaccurate forecasts, audio-visual society only create confusion, no interest at all, it should be noted the announcement.
China's earthquake scientific research has just begun to enter the stage, we can not predict prattle about the issue. At present the Central Weather Bureau has over 70 years of observation records, the National Science Board is making preparations for micro-seismic observation network, the staff engaged in research on all countries should understand the situation, going in the right direction, so the future can also promote China's earthquake prediction Research, so as to reduce earthquake damage caused by unnecessary, Zaofurenqun, national society also fortunate.
[Smile] | Posted: 2008-05-13 16:54