|26:1||And it came to pass, when Jesus had finished all these sayings, he said unto his disciples,|
|26:2||Ye know that after two days is the feast of the passover, and the Son of man is betrayed to be crucified.|
|26:3||Then assembled together the chief priests, and the scribes, and the elders of the people, unto the palace of the high priest, who was called Caiaphas,|
|26:4||And consulted that they might take Jesus by subtilty, and kill him.|
|26:5||But they said, Not on the feast day, lest there be an uproar among the people.|
|26:6||Now when Jesus was in Bethany, in the house of Simon the leper,|
|26:7||There came unto him a woman having an alabaster box of very precious ointment, and poured it on his head, as he sat at meat.|
|26:8||But when his disciples saw it, they had indignation, saying, To what purpose is this waste?|
26:3 of the Asia and France is the work of Jesus in the world during the High Priest, a former High Priest Anna's son-in-law. Rome after the conquest of Jewish and assigned to take over all political and religious leaders. The Asia and France has 18 years of work, than most of the High Priest should be long, probably because he is willing to cooperate with the Rome government. He proposed that Jesus is for people to die, and good save the whole country (the Senate about 11:49-50).
Start not sooner the better? » Those leaders think is……
26:3-5 This is a deliberate strategy of killing Jesus, there is no such strategy to attack Jesus, and popular opinion will not increase. In fact, because the popularity of Jesus, religious leaders do not want to arrest him during Passover, I am afraid, will cause the riots.
26:7 the woman is Mary, is Ma's sister, the sister of Lazarus.
26:8 Mary's move caused displeasure disciples, Judas particularly dissatisfied with the (Senate about 12:4-6).
地震預報是一個關係國計民生，受到各國政府與人民廣泛注意的問題，經過30年多方面的探索，至今仍是一個未取得突破的科學難題。近些年來由於一些大地震突然發生在事先末估計到的地區（如原蘇聯的亞美尼亞地震、日本的阪神地震、美國的洛杉磯地震等），以及在一些有明確預測意見的地震危險區（日本東海、美國帕克菲爾德）又未發生預期地震，促使科學家反思現行的一套地震預報體制是否有效的問題。 1996年11月在英國倫敦由英國皇家天文學會地球物理聯合會召開了“地震預報體制評估研討會”。有歐洲、美國、日本代表參加，中國沒有人出席。會上幾個主題發言都相當低調。後來，Kogan,Geller, Jackson三位教授聯名在Science發表了“地震無法預測”的論文。該文指出，在通過對地震預測進行了近30年的苦心研究以及對各地進行的地震預測考察之後，得出的結論是：地震是無法預測的，應該打消可能會在幾小時、幾天或幾個月之前預測到地震的希望。從事這方面的研究工作是一項毫無希望的工作。他們的主要論點是：
Foreign scientists said frankly: not possible to predict earthquakes
Earthquake prediction is an Guojiminsheng by the government and people of all countries of the extensive attention to the issue, after 30 years of exploring various aspects, is still not achieved a breakthrough in the scientific problems. In recent years a number of major earthquake occurred in a sudden at the end of prior estimates to the region (such as the former Soviet Union of the Armenian earthquake, the Kobe earthquake in Japan, the United States of the Los Angeles earthquake, etc.), and on some of the views of a clear forecast seismic hazard zone (Japan East China Sea , The United States Parkfield) also did not expect the earthquake, scientists to reflect on the current set of effective earthquake prediction system is the problem. November 1996 in London by the British Royal Astronomical Society Geophysical Union held a "seminar on assessment of earthquake prediction system." Europe, the United States, Japan representative to participate in, China has not attended. Several speakers at the theme is very low profile. Later, Kogan, Geller, Jackson three groups of professors published in Science "can not predict earthquakes," the papers. The article pointed out that the adoption of earthquake prediction for nearly 30 years of painstaking research, and the rest of the inspection after the earthquake prediction, come to the conclusion that: earthquakes are unpredictable, should dispel may be a few hours, days or Predicted a few months before the earthquake's hope. Engage in this kind of research work is a hopeless task. Their main argument is:
(A) Summary of earthquake precursors are not reliable
As of now all the reports of earthquake precursors is essentially retrospective, lack of strict proof, did not prove that they are precursors, but the earthquake has nothing to do with environmental factors. That the unusual heat and groundwater, no quantitative physical mechanism. In 1994 the Japanese island of Shikotan Shikotan earthquake before the 1200 km away from the wells of the "precursor of change" that no model could explain such a change, is specious. In general, their view of researchers in this field often low SNR as a signal to the data analysis used to set the parameters in advance from the assumption that the statistical methods to assess the inspection, after the adjustment through the parameters of The study results. In the treatment of the results did not consider other assumptions. He Greeks VAN method of a serious strict testing that is not acceptable.
(B) The existing method of forecasting experience is impassable
Ge11erf criticism on the 1978 Japan's Izu Oshima said the success of earthquake prediction. He said that in 1978 took place near the Izu Peninsula, a strong microseismicity, in three hours within the 18 felt tremors of the circumstances, the Japan Meteorological Agency announced the earthquake, reminded the public that, however, that this did not notice the earthquake Time, location, and magnitude, when the notice is given 90 minutes later, in the area near the 7 0 earthquake, he did not think the three elements of forecasting, prediction can not be considered successful. He also Japan's Tokai earthquake prediction by the criticism. He said: From the mid-1970s, the Japanese public was informed that in the Pacific coast, 150 km from Tokyo in the East China Sea, in the near future there may be eight of the earthquake, the public and the Government believe that the "expected in the earthquake will take place immediately ", Also established a" predictable earthquake contact ", however, earthquake prediction in the East China Sea has not occurred as scheduled, but not in other regions scheduled for a series of strong earthquakes (such as the Sea of Japan earthquake in 1983, 1993 Austrian Rishiri Island earthquake, the 1994 Shikotan Island earthquake, the 1995 Kobe earthquake, etc.). In the public in the "earthquake expected in the East China Sea" and the next Kanto (Tokyo) earthquake, "the information under the bombing, the Kobe region of the public and local governments mistakenly infer their own without risk, thus preventing earthquakes and no serious preparations . This situation has aggravated the Hanshin earthquake in losses and casualties. Parkfield in California of the United States, he considered that and other areas no different: He believes that the Parkfield earthquake risk in California is not higher than in other regions, he said : "The physical mechanism of the earthquake is not a sound basis for understanding" to achieve earthquake prediction is a tempting target, this goal has never reached the people, earthquake prediction research is a long one.
(C) of the earthquake process in accordance with the physical real, accurate forecasting is impossible
Since the earthquake process is sensitive to initial conditions of nonlinear dependence, even for the physical mechanism of the earthquake with a sound understanding of earthquakes or may not be able to make accurate forecasts. From the crust in a self-organized criticality, accurate earthquake prediction is difficult. The breakdown process is unstable, how much of each earthquake, only began after the earthquake can be determined. There are many factors, not the bigger earthquake bred the greater area. Size of the earthquake with a lot of uncertainty, broken by the start of a variety of factors to determine in advance how much the forecast is unrealistic.
Of course, the international community has a voice more than this. Some well-known earthquake experts to the achievements of earthquake prediction has certainly, in their view, seismologists can be achieved in the past 10 some are satisfied with the achievements, they think that the earthquake took place, time and magnitude of short-term forecast will eventually be realized, and The achievements of long-term forecast is more prominent, such as the United States Professor Allen's successful prediction of the 1989 earthquake Luoma Pu Gbadolite. He believes that in the short term forecast is reliable before, there will be many failures, may have to speculate that in 2100 or even 2200 can be achieved. Kobe earthquake in Japan before the end of Chi-fu and medium-term that there had been estimated, but did not draw attention
Earthquake Prediction of how the current situation »
States have called the earthquake in Japan, earthquake prediction research efforts in 1962 from the earthquake research scholars, experts, composed of about 90 people predict seismic research group, the blueprint for planning research projects, which include the following items: (1) . Application of the test results, the survey crustal movements, (2). Rectification of the tide gauge stations, to the detection of crustal movements, (3). Crustal movements for continuous observation, (4). Seismic survey activities (5). Application of Artificial Earthquake observation seismic velocity (6). Geomagnetic survey and the Current (7). Fault and fold investigative activities, (8). For destruction of experimental rock (9). Settings earthquake prediction centre.
Earthquake prediction research program, started in 1965, recruited Tokyo, Kyoto, Nagoya, and the northeast of Hokkaido, and other universities and the Meteorological Agency, the National Geographic Institute, and other units of experts and scholars engaged in research work. Although experienced a 30, but has not completed due to earthquake prediction theory, Japan has not yet released earthquake prediction.
The United States since the 1964 Alaska earthquake occurred after the earthquake prediction research is also promoting the very edge, the University of Alaska, California Institute of Technology, Columbia University, and the earthquake information center, and other units, some people have been engaged in this kind of research, and in 1964 In Tokyo and Japan held a joint meeting of earthquake prediction, and later held once every two years to discuss issues relating to the issue of earthquake prediction.
The former Soviet Union
The former Soviet Union in Asia and the Kamchatka Peninsula and other areas in earthquake prediction research for many years, July 26, 1972 the Soviet Tass news agency reported that Soviet research institutes (SovietResearchInstitute) scientists predict, since 1973-76, will 3-4, in the tsunami attack in northern Siberia to Taiwan along the 4,000 km coastline, the tsunami speed of 400-800 km, coastal waves up to 30 meters.
As most of the tsunami caused by undersea earthquakes, tsunamis can be predicted, of course, to predict earthquakes. But the former Soviet Union was no official announcement of the precise location of the epicenter, and its size and forecast the tsunami occurred on the day, so the forecast is doubtful. At that time, Taiwan's major newspapers and magazines published the news also rose sharply, from top to bottom alerted, the Council also fully verify that the former Soviet Union research in earthquake prediction is to promote, but so far without a complete success, special written to Hawaii in the United States to verify the International Tsunami Information Centre, The Centre for Miller (GaylordR.Miller) on November 21, 1972 Hanfu main points are as follows: Sakhalin to the Russian Far East Science Center (ILGG) tsunami Chairman of the Committee Suoluoweifu (SLSolviev) to verify that : "Soviet scientists for tsunami-related issues in many papers, due to the enthusiasm of journalists, exaggerated exaggerated, distorted facts and the cause ...". This shows that countries in the world for earthquake prediction, but also impossible.